Fate U.S. Will Face





Two days ago, Donald Trump was elected at the 45th president of the United States. The unexpected result are transformed into a pervasive anxiety about the future. Judging from the number of votes obtained by Mrs. Clinton, which outscored that of Mr. Trump, millions of people are terribly shocked to hear the news. Among those are a lustrous singer in the U.S. like Miley Cyrus or Lady Gaga. Miley Cyrus said that she would leave the U.S. if Donald Trump won, reproaching him for ribald speech. After he won, Lady Gaga put up a board saying “Love Trumps Hate” in front of the Trump Tower, and expressed her animosity toward him. Words of disappointment will never be stopped.



Mr. Trump boasts of his first priority as U.S. and American. His policies are inconsistent and inscrutable in many fields, but this priority is coherent, which attracted advocates for protectionism or nativism. As a result, those people, especially the white, voted to Donald Trump and led him to win. His radical and emotional remark towards immigrants or globalization allured more people than it infuriated. Unfortunately, democracy is king in the society. The election will never be done again, so let us think about the future after he becomes the president.




Roughly speaking, there is two dangers: economy and diplomacy. Mr. Trump hates globalization as if it hampered American prosperity, and panders to the lower paid and the white, who thought by themselves that their jobs are stolen by a growing number of immigrants. Economically thinking, there is, however, no reason to denounce globalization, an efficacy of which is already proven by a research (quoted from The Economist on 29th Sep 2016): “A study of 40 countries found that the richest consumers would lose 28% of their purchasing power if cross-border trade ended; but those in the bottom tenth would lose 63%.” Shunning open economy means doing harm both consumers and workers, including the low paid and white people. Definitely, free trade accelerates competition and innovation by firms, which contributes to economic development that gets more people well-off.

大まかにいうと、彼の政策には2つの危険性がある。経済、そして外交分野である。トランプ氏はグローバル化アメリカの繁栄を邪魔をするものだとして嫌悪している。これにより、移民によって仕事を奪われたと考えている低所得層の白人から票を獲得したわけであるが、経済的に考えればグローバル化は好ましいものである。英紙The Economist(2016年9月29日付)によると、自由貿易の排除により被る被害は、高所得者よりも低所得者の方が大きくなることが分かっている。皮肉にも、彼らは自らをより貧困に陥れる道を選択してしまったわけである。



Another flaw is diplomatic policy. Mr. Trump underestimates the menace of China. China has built a fortress in South China Sea, aiming dominance over East Asia in military sense. Donald Trump’s attitude to it was insufficient to alarm China, and said “It is very far away. And they’re already built.” He does not intend to undertake a role of “Police of the World” in his tenure of office. China would go further in the control over Asia if nothing was done. Mr. Trump looks too steadfast only to America, which is also seen in his speech like U.S. First. America should be more aware of its threat, otherwise balance in the world will be demolished in the next decade. Additionally, he loathes Muslims or Mexican to exercise influence over United States, and mentioned rejection of accepting immigrants and withdraw from NAFTA, a pact of free trade in the North American countries. Whatever happens, the relationships around the U.S. will be worse, and it will fetter his diplomatic plan.



Economics hates a jingoist, but favours a cosmopolitan. This is true of diplomacy. Donald Trump should amend his plan for the better. Otherwise, a bad scenario would await him. He would face great challenge in the areas of economy, diplomacy and others. At the end, I would like to say one thing to him: “Don’t be too selfish, be magnanimous!” United States is one of the greatest countries in the world, so I think it can make it.



参考:The Economist on 29th Sep 2016